Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Conspiracy Theory 101: Pardon me?

Here is something that's been running through my mind for the past week. I operate under the notion that George Bush governs in such a way that he basically doesn't care how a means is reached as long as he gets his way. With this in mind what would happen if he were to issue pardons to anybody who may be indicted from the Patrick Fitzgerald investigation? This becomes especially true if the indictment has to do with perjury and obstruction rather than with the original outing of Valerie Plame.

There would be an immediate firestorm. But really, how much worse can it get for President Bush anyway? He has basically reached rock bottom in the polls, the right has rebelled over the Miers nomination, Iraq is going south with 2k American dead and now he may lose his most trusted advisor. Unless he issues the pardon and weathers the firestorm. Lets face it, indictments right now would mean trials while the mid-term elections were heating up. If Bush can get through the firestorm until everything dies down the indictments/pardons may be a side issue in the mid-terms.

Besides, if Bush just cannot fathom governing without Rove holding his hand, unless they decide that Rove should remain on after an indictment in which case he would be very pre-occupied with the trial and probably not very effective, the only way out may be a pardon. This may also help to stop any embarrassing leaks as the trial progressed about the way the Iraq war was foisted upon us. Also, I doubt very seriously if anyone questions that anyone indicted on this will be pardoned when Bush leaves office. He probably would rather not see them go to trial and maybe jail in the meantime.

This would undoubtedly create a massive backlash. But when president Bush changed the rules for administration figures being forced out from "anyone involved" to "anyone convicted" he may have given a hint of things to come.

Finally let me close this with a disclaimer. I think the chances of this actually happening are remote. But I do believe this presidents style makes it a good deal more likely than I'm comfortable with. If the pardons don't follow the indictments, I won't be surprised, but if the scenario I lay out here does occur... remember you read it here 1st.

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