Tuesday, April 11, 2006

October Surprise...

Paul Krugman (via Truthout.org ) has written a column which I believe deserves attention. The gist of his article is to compare the leadup to the Iraq invasion with the leadup to a possible strike on Iraq.

The part that really grabbed my attention was where Mr. Krugman speculates on the possibility of this President going to war with Iran in order to change the political dynamic on the domestic front. While Mr. Krugman does not draw a parallel with the Iraq invasion on this count the similarity is there.

The Bush administration brought the issue of Congressional approval to a vote on October 10, 2002. This date was less than a month before the midterm elections. And the issue of approval of the use of force against Iraq was used by Republican candidates around the nation and helped solidify their control of the House and take control of the Senate.

I do not believe the administration will be taking the case for a strike on Iran to Congress because, with the disaster that has unfolded in Iraq, Congressional approval of a strike on Iran is doubtful. With history as our guide then, assuming that there will not be a vote on the issue, how can we expect a strike on Iran to help Bush on the domestic political front? An October surprise is all that is left.

Traditionally when a President uses military force, there is a short term boost of support which follows. The administration may count on this traditional boost to keep the Congress in Republican hands and subpoena power out of the hands of Democrats.

My prediction then is that in the weeks immediately prior to the November election we will see a bombing campaign on Iran. If this pans out the question is, will this blatant attempt to influence an election succeed... again? Or will the public see through this desperate poltical stunt and throw the bums out?

The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said “I declare here that the laboratory-scale nuclear fuel cycle has been completed and young scientists produced enriched uranium”. What was his definition of laboratory-scale? Laboratory scale characterization, small scale and pilot scale test method development.
...how can we expect a strike on Iran to help Bush on the domestic political front? An October surprise is all that is left.

Normally I'd agree, but in this case, with Bush's polls where they are, I think that a strike on Iran will do him in. If it's a nuclear strike, he'll go down faster than one of Cheney's hunting partners.

So, looking at this somewhat Machevellian, I should be wishing for a strike right? Nope, just can't. As the only country to ever have deployed a nuclear weapon, we should take it as a given that we never will again.
Jasonspalding - As I understand it the Uranium has been enriched to 3.5%.
It took about 3 months to do so. I think it need to be enriched to around 60% for power use, and around 90% for weopon use.

As I don't pretend to be an expert in Nuke Tech(unlike other subjects) maybe somebody can correct or add to what I wrote?

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