Friday, November 03, 2006

The November surprise, surprise

The verdict against Saddam Hussien is scheduled to be released Sunday. The White House has launched an effort to ensure maximum political gain from the verdict. It appears this was planned to be the much anticipated "October surprise", or more aptly named November surprise in this case. However I wonder if what the White House is hoping for in this case might actually work against them for the following reasons.

This will make news, but the news is going to be a reminder of Iraq. I doubt there will be a sea change in public opinion as to the worth of the war effort based upon a "Saddam Found Guilty" headline. In fact hearing about Iraq Iraq Iraq, for whatever reason, dominating the news 24 hours just prior to most people going to the polls may work against the Bushovichs, not for them. Of course they think Iraq is a great success as it is, so they do not realize what they are doing as they engineer the event and shoot themselves in the foot.

The guilty verdict may not be followed by a wave of spontaneous pro western joy, or even silence by the Iraqi locals. This actually may result in a period wracked by even worsening violence (if it is even possible) as the Sunni's express their displeasure at the event. The Bushies might be setting themselves up for a cycle of headlines about the worsening chaos just as the polls open.

We may wind up watching the intended November surprise result in another gaping self inflicted wound by the Republicans on their hopes for election day.

[updated:] I have been informed via comments that the independent Green party of Virginia is not affiliated with the national or Virginia state Green party. Here is their Wiki entry. I apologize to any Green party members who I set off with this post and do hope you can see the honesty of the mistake I made in this case.

I agree--a great big yawn from the electorate at the least damaging, or another couple of House seats at the most damanging.
Good point. "Let them eat cake!" It is like they have totally lost touch which will spell their demise.

Unfortunately, I think the violence can and will get worse.

Happy voting
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