Friday, July 13, 2007
A Possible Gore Run? My Take For Dumbies
I've submitted three articles: 2 on politics and 1 on how our family named our cats. The major difference between Helium and blogging is that Helium doesn't allow linking and the way that site works with preset titles it's not focused on the immediate news of the day.
Well, I noticed Helium recruiting writers for an article titled: "Will Al Gore bid for 2008 and could he do it?" This article was being solicited by a magazine who wanted a bit of detail on Gores environmental activism and whether or not he may run for President... and win (or I suppose do) it.
Normally I wouldn't cross post something like my effort at that type of article, because I'm certain that the average person who stumbles over Club Lefty is politically aware enough to not be interested in a pretty basic primer on Al Gore and speculation on a possible Gore run. But I thought I'd post my article from there to Club Lefty, just to see if there is any positive response. Or any response at all. I suppose no response is it's own response in a way.
Before I post the article, let me point out the major error I've found in reading it, after posting it. I reference Gores prescient opposition to the Iraq war in the fall of 2001, but the particular speech I'm thinking of actually occurred in the fall of 02. I also misspell "will" about 3/4 of the way through the article.
So without further ado, here is my cross post from Helium to Club Lefty on the question... Will Al Gore bid for 2008 and could he do it?:
We are faced with two questions while considering a possible bid by Al Gore for the Presidency. Will Gore run and can he win?
The first part of this equation is the most difficult. Gore has already tasted life in the White House and it is evident that his experience as Vice President did not dissuade him from wishing to make his own mark as President. Gore witnessed President Clinton being savaged by partisanship that has rarely been witnessed in American history. Witnessing President Clinton's political crucifixion (and triumphant resurrection) up close and personal did not dissuade Gore from running in 2000. People who know about such things describe the itch to be President as a bug that is hard to be rid of and Gore running in 2000 may well prove their point.
It is difficult to imagine the disappointment Gore felt after actually winning the 2000 election, but losing the majority of the electoral college votes. Yet Gore must consider the nations perception of the Presidency of George Bush as a sort of vindication.
Since the traumatic events of 2000, Gore has risen to the challenge of maintaining relevance after politics as few have ever have managed to accomplish. Gore's stance against the Iraq invasion in the fall of 2001 seems prescient in hindsight. His repeated affirmations of the constitutional principles on which America was founded seem more enlightened with each passing day. Each revelation of possible criminality and cover up from the Bush administration serves to strengthen Gores repeated calls for principled and constitutional leadership.
Where Gore has made the biggest mark is with the issue that defined him from the early days of his career in politics. He has long been a proponent for the environment, holding the first hearings on the issue of global warming as a member of Congress in the 1970's. He wrote Earth In The Balance, which was released in 1992. His best known contribution was the documentary An Inconvenient Truth, which changed American perceptions on the issue of global warming. Gore has proven himself a mighty champion for the causes he promotes and being able to use the power of the Presidency would give him an unmatched platform to affect those issues.
After finding this success in a life apart from politics the question of whether or not Gore wil see fit to run again is a very valid one. Gore has seen the ugliest side of the worst partisanship up close and personal. He was exposed to that ugliness, and then bitterly disappointed after the 2000 election debacle. Who could blame him for not wanting to put his family and himself through that again.
But... we are asked to consider if he does decide to run, can he win? This part of the equation is exceedingly simple. He already has won a national election. In fact he has been a part of a ticket which has won a total of three national elections. Gore won the election of 2000 by over half a million votes and there is no reason to suppose he could be the top of the ticket and do it again. The fluke that kept Gore from taking the oath of office would be nearly impossible to replicate. With this in mind, I think it is not only possible that he would win, but likely. Further, with the current mood of the nation, it is likely that Gore could come to power with a solidified Democratic majority in Congress.
A ticket of Al Gore/Barak Obama would be hard to beat by anything the Republicans would nominate.
So to answer the two sides of the equation: Will Gore run. On a scale of 1-10 I give the probability that he does a 7. He's had the bug, and it's hard to be rid of. If he does run will he win? I'll give that a 9.5 on the scale.
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