Thursday, November 30, 2006

May I have honey mustard with my crow?

So while in contemplation yesterday evening, I remembered a post from this past April wherein I predicted an attack on Iran by President Bush in an attempt to influence the midterm elections.

One of my greatest criticisms of President Bush is his inability to admit error. It seems to me that if I wish to keep any shred of credibility going forward that I would not echo the Presidents failure in this regard.

In my post from last April I wrote:
Traditionally when a President uses military force, there is a short term boost of support which follows. The administration may count on this traditional boost to keep the Congress in Republican hands and subpoena power out of the hands of Democrats.

My prediction then is that in the weeks immediately prior to the November election we will see a bombing campaign on Iran.
I now proclaim for any who care to listen that I was wrong in my October surprise prediction. I make no excuses... I was simply off base in thinking this would occur.

look... you have nothing to apologize for... anyone who has been paying the slightest bit of attention for the past six years could have reasonably believed that bush would attack iran before the elections... i happen to believe that it was at least partly due the dogged work and constant alarm-raising on the part of bloggers and, possibly, the quiet signal from the joint chiefs that they would resign that prevented it from happening... i don't think we're out of the woods yet either... as long as bush and cheney are still in office and rove, addington, and gonzales are still in positions of executive branch power, we are not safe... continue to sound the alarms as you see them...
Yeah... I definitely do no believe the threat to Iran is over.

I don't actually mean to come across as apologetic for making the prediction. I just want to admit to an error in making it. There were several good indications at the time that the prediction was sound. But since it didn't pan out I just wanted to admit that error...

I just think it is a good thing to contemplate ones falability and occasionally provide a check to ones sense of all knowingness. Nearly by definition, the beliefs held by an individual are absolutely accurate to that person until proof is provided to contradict that belief. It is in judging and reacting to the proof of the issues that a person demonstrates sound reasoning. In not following the example of President Bush in this regard I would love to think that some day soon he would reciprocate with a bit of retrospection of his own. Not that that will ever happen mind you!
I also read the tea leaves wrong, sort of.
Since the Rovian theft of previous elections worked so well only a fool would have thought they wouldn't do the same thing again. My take was that their vote rigging would have been so obvious that chaos would ensue followed by the Iran war to sweep all that off the table.
Oh the machines were corrupted all right - it's just that they weren't tweaked enough to stem the democrat tidal wave. I also erred in thinking that the dems would be hot to investigate and punish the scumbags. Not.
But war with Iran is inevitable. The zio/fascists will ensure that.
War with Iran won't happen. Ahmadinejad didn't try to kill Bush's dad, or invade Kuwait, or gas the Kurds. Iran is a long ways from provoking war. Sanctions, yes, war, no.

Kudos for admitting your error.
Well, that is why you are not a politician. I read a quote from Napoleon over at Swerve Left that sums it up...
In politics... never retreat, never retract... never admit a mistake.

I predicted September 25th 2006 as the bombing date in a pool at another blog, so don't feel bad, at least you have company.
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